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mooninvader     2018-10-29 20:42:11

the solution to

9 17 17 20 23 19 18 19 21 11 24 18 16 9 10 21 16 14 21 23 19 13 16 20 17 17 13 22 14 18 13 15 16 16 22 23 22 18 27 12 17 22 17 10 12 21 17 18 15 21 20 19 18 24 12 21 17 17 28 15 17 22 14 19 19 15 23 15 26 17 17 14 18 19 17 18 16 23 21 18 18 20 23 18 22 15 18 24 24 24 19 20 18 16 22 24 13 9 10 16 0 33 31 23 23 21 35 28 25 37 24 17 23 30 29 33 27 23 31 36 30 17 29 30 28 24 30 16 34 40 29 21 37 29 22 20 16 27 20 31 20 27 16 31 15 26 19 31 16 34 37 31 15 22 33 35 22 31 27 40 35 15 26 20 27 18 33 27 23 34 16 24 27 18 35 32 22 26 23 9 32 20 31 27 23 24 9 26 28 23 21 23 22 24 19 29 34 29 25 30 21 0 6 10 7 8 9 5 7 11 11 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 6 4 7 9 7 8 9 7 7 7 5 8 9 8 11 7 11 8 7 6 8 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 10 9 3 10 7 7 9 8 4 7 12 10 8 6 10 5 9 5 8 9 6 3 12 9 10 9 9 6 7 9 10 9 9 8 6 8 8 7 9 7 6 5 5 11 9 8 10 7 7 6 9 3 3 9 0

is 4d8 4d12 3d4

but isn't my solution 3d10 4d10 1d12 valid?

why the checker doesnt accept it???

Rodion (admin)     2018-10-30 05:30:04
User avatar

Hi there!

but isn't my solution 3d10 4d10 1d12 valid?

well, you see, this problem is about statistics. Though some answers are technically possible they are not probable. And the goal is to guess the most fitting answer in the sense of probability.

You seem to choose answer according to lower and upper bound of the values, but that is not enough.

Let's see an example with the last line. You suppose it is result of casting 1d12. However, if such a die is cast all values from 1 to 12 have equal probability. Meanwhile we don't see any 1, 2 here (though of 100 attempts here should be about eight times for each number, right?)

Let's check the histogram of the results of this last case:

1   0
2   0
3   4
4   2
5   6
6   11
7   24
8   18
9   19
10  9
11  5
12  2
13  0

You see it really don't look like all numbers from 1 to 12 have equal probabilities, so it's something other.

Also keep in mind that sometimes answers are close, like 4d10 and 4d12 to be distinguished by just 100 casts, so you may need to attempt submission several times to pass (as it is said in problem statement)...

Hope this helps :)

mooninvader     2018-10-30 09:36:26

thanks I will reconsider my approach

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